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Should COHR Stock Be in Your Portfolio Before Q1 Earnings?

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Key Takeaways

  • Coherent's Q1 earnings are expected to jump 70.7%, with revenues projected to grow 45.8% year over year.
  • Datacenter & Communications revenues are expected to surge 70.5%, offsetting a 9% decline in Industrial.
  • COHR's AI-driven optical demand supports growth prospects, though industrial weakness poses risks.

Coherent Corp. (COHR - Free Report) will report its first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Nov. 4, after the bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the to-be-reported quarter stands at $1.98, indicating 70.7% growth from the year-ago reported quarter. The consensus estimate for total revenues stands at $2.31 billion, indicating 45.8% year-over-year growth. There has been no revision to analyst estimates in the past 30 days.

Zacks Investment Research                                                                     Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The company has a strong history of earnings surprises. Earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and matched once, with an average earnings surprise of 6.2%.

Zacks Investment Research                                                                  Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

COHR’s Higher Chance of Q3 Earnings Beat

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for COHR this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

COHR has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Coherent’s Q1 Growth Hinges on Datacenter & Communications

We expect a significant year-over-year improvement in the company’s top line in the to-be-reported quarter, driven by healthy business from Datacenter & Communications segments. The consensus estimate for Datacenter & Communications revenues stands at $1.86 billion, indicating 70.5% year-over-year growth. The consensus estimate for Industrial revenues is pegged at $447.53million, suggesting a 9% year-over-year decline.

COHR Stock Experiencing Decline

Coherent shares have declined 39% over the past six months as well as in the past month. This performance clearly indicates a consistent decline in the stock lately.

Based on forward 12-month Price/Earnings, COHR is currently trading at 18.22X, above the industry’s 17.69X. If we look at the forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio, the company’s shares are currently trading at 3.29X forward sales, above the industry’s 2.35X.

COHR Stock is a Buy Ahead of Earnings

Coherent remains an attractive investment ahead of its upcoming earnings release, supported by accelerating demand for AI-driven optical networking solutions and expanding datacenter infrastructure investments. Strong demand for high-speed connectivity products, improving product mix and continued innovation should bolster its growth prospects. The company’s strategic positioning in the rapidly expanding AI ecosystem provides substantial opportunities for sustained revenue growth and margin expansion. Although weakness in industrial markets and premium valuation pose near-term risks, robust demand for advanced optical technologies should support long-term performance. Investors may consider buying COHR shares to capitalize on its promising growth trajectory and improving fundamentals.

Two Peers to Watch

Lumentum Holdings (LITE - Free Report) is a relevant optical-networking peer with significant exposure to cloud and data-center connectivity. Lumentum Holdings competes in high-speed optical components and related technologies, making it sensitive to many of the AI-driven bandwidth trends supporting COHR. Lumentum Holdings therefore provides investors with another way to gauge demand across the rapidly evolving optical-networking market.

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI - Free Report) is another U.S.-listed peer tied closely to data-center optics. Applied Optoelectronics benefits from demand for higher-speed optical products used by hyperscale customers, linking its growth prospects to expanding data-center investment. Applied Optoelectronics is therefore a useful comparison when assessing how effectively optical suppliers are converting AI infrastructure spending into revenue growth and stronger profitability.

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